On the perception of risk

Folks worry, a lot, about supervising their kids. Here’s a quick question for you:

If you, for some strange reason, wanted your child to be kidnapped and held overnight by a stranger, how long would you have to leave him or her outside, alone and unsupervised in America, for this to be statistically likely to happen?

Now, the fact that I’m asking this should suggest to you that the answer isn’t what you’d expect.

Go on, hazard a guess. Post your best guess in the comments, or send to me written in blunt crayon on the back of a postage stamp.

I’ll post the answer tomorrow.

This entry was posted on Wednesday, July 22nd, 2009 at 3:02 pmand is filed under Kids. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.

10 Responses to “On the perception of risk”

  • CopperBot Says:
    July 22nd, 2009 at 4:01 pm

    I’m guessing the answer is somewhere in the vicinity of several years, if not their entire lifetime. We Americans worry far too much about scenarios which rarely occur.

  • Barb Says:
    July 22nd, 2009 at 4:16 pm

    Depends what area they are (the child is left) and also what source you believe, when getting this information. I wouldn’t leave a child usupervised in the USA!

  • lance Says:
    July 22nd, 2009 at 5:24 pm

    Depends how you measure.

    If you measure by number of abductions per year/number of kids – then hundreds to thousands of years. You need to have number of abductions/year on top line )it’s a tiny number), and total amount of time all kids all across america spend alone on the bottom. That bottom number is very very large and prone to a lot of estimation error.
    The overall result will also vary dramatically by socio-economic status, suburb and ethnicity.

    If you measure by sample – leaving a kid outside and observing what happens – then it really depends on where you left the kid and the other parameters of the experiment. The results will be simple – the kid will be let alone or a good person will help them.

    Almost all people are good.

  • Simon Says:
    July 22nd, 2009 at 8:35 pm

    17 minutes

  • Helen Says:
    July 22nd, 2009 at 8:35 pm

    20 years

  • Katie Says:
    July 22nd, 2009 at 8:35 pm

    180 years

  • The editor Says:
    July 23rd, 2009 at 9:23 am

    Copying across some estimates from folks on Facebook.

  • CopperBot Says:
    July 23rd, 2009 at 11:25 am

    Do I start the drumroll now? :)

  • And the answer is … | Cruel and Unusual Geography Says:
    July 23rd, 2009 at 11:07 pm

    [...] Yesterday I asked the question If you, for some strange reason, wanted your child to be kidnapped and held overnight by a stranger, how long would you have to leave him or her outside, alone and unsupervised in America, for this to be statistically likely to happen? [...]

  • Jo Says:
    July 24th, 2009 at 9:00 am

    Adding the proviso that the kid has to be held overnight (and by a stranger) is sure to decrease the likelihood.

    Kidnapped and dumped? My perceptions are warped. I can’t vouch for America, but my one keeps getting returned.